PomavsGardena

© John Fraser

High School Football Playoff Outlook

Updated Playoff Seedings After Week 8

Braden Surprenant
October 06, 2018 - 12:34 pm

Open Division (Top 4 teams from Division 1)

#1 hosts #4, and #2 hosts #3

 

Rank    Team                                       Rating (Trend)            Strength of Sched.      Opp. Win-Loss

1.Cathedral Catholic                   (6-1)    54.8 (+2.4)                  33.5                             25-24

2. Torrey Pines                                  (7-0)    50.3 (+2.7)                  27.3                             22-28

3. La Costa Canyon                           (6-1)    45.7 (+0.9)                  33.3                             29-21

4. Helix                                              (3-3)    41      (-.8)                   37.5                             32-19

With the remaining schedules these schools have, mixed with the schedules of the schools knocking on the door, we expect this to be the open playoff. The seeds of the four schools have the most likelihood of changing, but the teams themselves do not. Below in Division 1, Eastlake, San Marcos, and St. Augustine are the only teams that really have a shot to sneak into the playoffs but they are going to need some help. Cathedral Catholic and Torrey Pines are essentially locks to make the open unless both schools lose each of their next three games. Cathedral and Torrey are significantly favored in their last three games of the season. La Costa Canyon’s next three opponents have ratings of 31.8, 38.2, and 50.4. As long as they keep the games close, they will not lose enough points to drop out of the Open playoff. Bad news for Helix, their remaining schedule is going to hurt their power rating, even if they win by 50 points. Last night the Highlanders defeated Valhalla 56-6 and dropped .8 in their rating. Good news for Helix, Eastlake also plays a low strength of schedule that will also hamper their rating. It will be interesting to see if Cathedral can hold off Torrey Pines for the one seed, and if Helix can jump LCC, while holding off Eastlake.

Division 1 (Remaining 12 teams after top 4 in Open)

Seeds 1-4 receive first round byes.

#5 hosts #12, Winner plays #4

#6 hosts #11, Winner plays #3

#7 hosts #10, Winner plays #2

#8 hosts #9, Winner plays #1

Rank    Team                                       Rating (Trend)            Strength of Sched.      Opp. Win-Loss

1. Eastlake                              (6-1)    39.9     (+1.2)              14.8                                         18-32

2. San Marcos                   (6-1)    38.7     (+1.2)              24.9                                         21-29

3. St. Augustine                      (5-2)    38.7     (-.2)                 25.4                                         28-23

4. Carlsbad                             (4-3)    38.3     (+5.9)              27.8                                         31-18

5. Madison                              (4-2)    32.7     (+2.8)              26.6                                         28-22

6. Mission Hills                      (2-5)    31.9     (+1.6)              39.6                                         30-20

7. Oceanside                           (3-4)    29.7     (+0.4)              29.3                                         26-25

8. Rancho Bernardo                (5-2)    29.7     (+0.9)              17.8                                         23-26

9. Steele Canyon                     (5-2)    28.8     (+3.9)              19.5                                         30-20

10. Otay Ranch                       (5-3)    23.6     (+1.3)              18.2                                         27-30

11. El Camino                         (1-6)    22.6     (+1.3)              40.8                                         40-9

12. Grossmont                         (2-5)    13.4     (+0.8)              25.5                                         35-14

Division 2 (Top 12 teams)

Seeds 1-4 receive first round byes.

#5 hosts #12, Winner plays #4

#6 hosts #11, Winner plays #3

#7 hosts #10, Winner plays #2

#8 hosts #9, Winner plays #1

Rank    Team                                       Rating (Trend)            Strength of Sched.      Opp. Win-Loss

1.Granite Hills                         (7-0)    33.7     (+3.8)              6.7                                           19-31

2. Poway                                  (6-2)    27.5     (+2.8)              13.6                                         24-32

3. Vista                              (5-2)    26.3     (+2.8)              11.8                                         25-26

4. Point Loma                         (4-3)    26.2     (+0.4)              21.7                                         26-23

5. Ramona                              (5-2)    25.7     (+1.4)              15.3                                         22-29

6. Lincoln                               (6-1)    24.1     (+2.0)              1                                              21-27

7. Valley Center                      (4-3)    22.4     (+2.1)              12                                            24-25

8. Mira Mesa                           (5-2)    17        (+1.6)              7.6                                           20-22

9. San Pasqual                         (4-3)    13.7     (+3.0)              10.4                                         27-20

10. Bishop’s                            (3-3)    9.5       (+1.2)              13                                            19-17

11. Mater Dei                          (3-5)    8.4       (+1.3)              15.5                                         29-26

12. Olympian                          (1-6)    6.2       (+1.3)              25.8                                         34-17

* Westview (3.8), Mt. Carmel (0.7), Bonita Vista (-1.7), Southwest EC (-12.4), and Valhalla (-13.3) would not make the playoffs.

Division 3 (Top 12 teams)

Seeds 1-4 receive first round byes.

#5 hosts #12, Winner plays #4

#6 hosts #11, Winner plays #3

#7 hosts #10, Winner plays #2

#8 hosts #9, Winner plays #1

Rank    Team                                       Rating (Trend)            Strength of Sched.      Opp. Win-Loss

1.Christian                                 (7-0)    34.3     (+0.6)              11.8                                         29-19

2. Central                                   (7-0)    25        (+1.5)              -10                                           24-25

3. Monte Vista                           (5-1)    24.4     (+0.9)              3.3                                           24-23

4. Brawley                                 (6-1)    20.1     (+1.2)              1.1                                           27-22

5. Morse                                    (4-3)    16.4     (+2.5)              7.7                                           25-24

6. Santa Fe Christian                 (4-3)    12.6     (-0.1)               13.4                                         27-22

7. University City                     (4-2)    8.8       (+1.5)              -1.4                                          18-24

8.Imperial                                 (4-3)    8.7       (+1.8)              3.5                                           28-20

9. El Capitan                            (2-5)    6.0       (+0.4)              19.4                                         31-19

10. West Hills                          (6-1)    3.6       (+1.0)              -12.7                                        12-38

11. Rancho Buena Vista          (3-4)    0                                  3.5                                           20-29

12. La Jolla                              (2-5)    -0.6      (+0.8)              8.6                                           31-18

* Escondido (-1), Scripps Ranch (-1.6), Mount Miguel (-5.9), Hilltop (-14.2), and Patrick Henry (-15.3) would not make the playoffs.

Division 4 (Top 12 teams)

Seeds 1-4 receive first round byes.

#5 hosts #12, Winner plays #4

#6 hosts #11, Winner plays #3

#7 hosts #10, Winner plays #2

#8 hosts #9, Winner plays #1

Rank    Team                           Rating (Trend)            Strength of Sched.      Opp. Win-Loss

1.Kearny                         (6-0)    23.3     (+1.8)              -18.5                            12-32

2. San Diego             (5-1)    11.2     (+7.5)              -17.2                            15-25

3. Del Norte                    (4-3)    0.7       (+0.4)              2.8                               21-26

4. Mar Vista                    (5-2)    0.4       (+8.8)              -13.8                            25-19

5. Santana                       (4-4)    -7.8      (-0.2)               -7.7                              31-21

6. Chula Vista                 (2-5)    -8         (+5.3)              4.1                               26-24

7. Serra                           (3-3)    -12.8    (+10.7)            -21.4                            13-28

8. Classical Academy     (4-3)    -13.6    (+4.3)              -21.8                            17-26

9. Calexico                      (3-4)    -15.5    (-0.8)               -8.2                              27-20

10. Coronado                  (4-1)    -15.9    (+0.8)              -28.5                            12-22

11. La Jolla Country Day (2-5)    -16.5    (+1.8)              -3                                 27-21

12. Montgomery               (3-4)    -23                               -18                               25-21

*Fallbrook (-24.3), Sweetwater (-26.7), Crawford (-26.8), Mission Bay (-29.7), and El Cajon Valley (-45.9) would not make the playoffs.

Division 5 (Top 12 teams)

Seeds 1-4 receive first round byes.

#5 hosts #12, Winner plays #4

#6 hosts #11, Winner plays #3

#7 hosts #10, Winner plays #2

#8 hosts #9, Winner plays #1

Rank    Team                                       Rating (Trend)           Strength of Sched.      Opp. Win-Loss

1. Francis Parker                (7-0)    -5.4      (+2.6)              -39.4                                        8-38  

2. Tri-City Christian                 (6-1)    -6.6      (+3.9)              -28.2                                        17-30

3. Holtville                                (5-1)    -7.2      (+0.1)              -19                                           13-22

4. Vincent Memorial                 (5-1)    -7.9      (+1.6)              -20.7                                        17-26

5. Orange Glen                          (4-1)    -9.6      (+3.2)              -25.9                                        10-23

6. Palo Verde Valley                  (3-4)    -20.2    (+0.9)              -18.4                                        23-24

7. Maranatha Christian              (4-4)    -23.2    (+1.6)              -23.4                                        24-28

8. Southwest SD                        (3-4)    -27.2    (+1.6)              -26.5                                        20-24

9. Mountain Empire                  (3-3)    -27.5    (+1.6)              -31.5                                        11-29

10. Castle Park                          (3-2)    -28.9    (+4.5)              -35.5                                        8-24

11. Army-Navy                         (2-5)    -34.1    (+2.7)              -24.9                                   24-23-1

12. Calipatria                            (3-4)    -36.5    (+1.3)              -33.6                                        16-30

*Escondido Charter (-45.4), Clairemont (-45.9), Hoover (-49.1), and San Ysidro (-50.2) would not make the playoffs.