PomavsGardena

© John Fraser

San Diego High School Football...Who’s In?

Playoff Outlook at the Halfway Mark

Braden Surprenant
September 20, 2018 - 12:57 pm

We are now at about the halfway point of the season and playoff races are in full force! Last week Helix defeated St. Augustine and got themselves back into the Open division playoff conversation. Mission Hills, who everyone thought played themselves out of competition this year, has resurrected like to almost biblical proportions and are also right on the cusp of being a dark horse in the Avocado League.

For a look at a preview of Week 6 CLICK HERE. 

This is how the San Diego Union-Tribune poll looked like entering the week:

Rank    Team               Record             Opponent This Week

1.Torrey Pines           5-0               idle

2. La Costa Canyon   5-0              idle

3. Cathedral Catholic 3-1               vs Olympian (1-4)

4. Helix                      2-3              idle

5. Eastlake                  3-0              @ El Camino (1-3)

6.Madison                  4-1              idle

7. St. Augustine         4-1              idle

8. Lincoln                   5-0              idle

9. San Marcos            3-1              @ Mt. Carmel (0-5)

10. Mission Hills       2-3              idle

These rankings are fun and I enjoy voting in the poll each and every week, but they do not matter. All the power rankings that multiple media entities and other people come up with, do not matter. The rankings that do matter are the calpreps.com rankings, as they are the ones that determine the playoffs for the CIF San Diego Section. These rankings are determined by computers that evaluate multiple factors including margin of victory as well as strength of schedule. Essentially, if your team defeats a team that has a higher rating than you, your score goes up. Beating a team with a lower rating might lower your rating if you do not win by a large enough margin. That can play a huge effect for some team’s league schedules down the road. Let’s take a look at what the playoffs would look like for each division if the season ended at the halfway mark.

Open Division (Top 4 teams from Division 1)

#1 hosts #4, and #2 hosts #3

Rank    Team                                       Rating             Strength of Schedule              Opp. Win-Loss

1.La Costa Canyon            (5-0)    46.3                 25.2                                         10-12

2. Cathedral Catholic         (3-1)    44.8                 39.7                                         10-8

3. Torrey Pines                  (5-0)    43.3                 17.6                                         10-14

4. Helix                             (2-3)    41.3                 43.6                                          19-4

Division 1 (Remaining 12 teams after top 4 in Open)

Seeds 1-4 receive first round byes.

#5 hosts #12, Winner plays #4

#6 hosts #11, Winner plays #3

#7 hosts #10, Winner plays #2

#8 hosts #9, Winner plays #1

Rank    Team                                       Rating             Strength of Schedule              Opp. Win-Loss

1.Eastlake                          (4-1)    37.1                 10.8                                         10-13

2. St. Augustine                (4-1)    34.6                 16.9                                         9-14

3.Mission Hills                 (2-3)    31.9                 36.9                                         14-10

4. Carlsbad                        (3-2)    29.2                 18.1                                         13-9

5. Madison                        (4-1)    27.3                 15.9                                         8-14

6. San Marcos                   (3-1)    26.9                 19.4                                         7-11

7. Steele Canyon               (3-1)    24.6                 15.7                                         10-10

8. El Camino                     (1-3)    22.2                 38.6                                         16-3

9. Otay Ranch                   (2-3)    18.4                 24.0                                         16-7

10. Rancho Bernardo        (3-2)    17.5                 11.0                                         16-9

11. Grossmont                  (1-3)    15.5                 28.3                                         13-4

12. Oceanside                    (1-3)    14.5                 23.9                                         10-9

Division 2 (Top 12 teams)

 

Seeds 1-4 receive first round byes.

#5 hosts #12, Winner plays #4

#6 hosts #11, Winner plays #3

#7 hosts #10, Winner plays #2

#8 hosts #9, Winner plays #1

Rank    Team                                       Rating             Strength of Schedule              Opp. Win-Loss

1.Point Loma                     (3-2)    20.0                 15.1                                         10-14

2. Vista                              (4-1)    19.5                 3.0                                           10-14

3.Granite Hills                   (4-0)    18.6                 -3.1                                          5-15

4. Lincoln                          (5-0)    17.7                 -13                                           7-15

5. Ramona                         (3-2)    17.5                 11.5                                         10-15

6. Mira Mesa                     (4-0)    14.2                 -9.1                                          6-14

7. Valley Center                (3-2)    14.0                 4.3                                           10-15

8. Poway                           (3-2)    12.9                 6.1                                           12-12

9. Bishop’s                        (2-2)    6.2                   14.2                                         7-7

10. San Pasqual                 (3-2)    3.7                   1.1                                           12-11

11. Olympian                    (1-4)    -0.1                  13.6                                         15-9

12. Bonita Vista                (1-4)    -0.5                  21.3                                         15-8

*Mater Dei, Westview, Mt. Carmel, Southwest EC, and Valhalla would not make the playoffs.

Division 3 (Top 12 teams)

Seeds 1-4 receive first round byes.

#5 hosts #12, Winner plays #4

#6 hosts #11, Winner plays #3

#7 hosts #10, Winner plays #2

#8 hosts #9, Winner plays #1

Rank    Team                                       Rating             Strength of Schedule              Opp. Win-Loss

1.Christian                         (4-0)    22.0                 1.2                                           10-6

2. Central                           (5-0)    16.5                 -13.4                                        9-12

3.Monte Vista                   (3-1)    16.5                 -1.8                                          11-8

4. Brawley                         (4-1)    15.9                 2.9                                           11-10

5. Santa Fe Christian         (3-1)    8.8                   2.9                                           8-12

6. West Hills                     (4-0)    5.7                   -15.3                                        4-14

7. Morse                            (2-2)    2.4                   -0.9                                          10-10

8. University City              (4-1)    1.9                   -13.1                                        9-13

9.Imperial                          (3-2)    0.6                   -2.9                                          12-12

10. Escondido                   (3-2)    -2.5                  -5.3                                          11-12

11. El Capitan                    (1-3)    -3.3                  6.3                                           10-9

12. La Jolla                        (2-3)    -4.0                  -1.5                                          16-8

*Scripps Ranch, Rancho Buena Vista, Hilltop, Mount Miguel and Patrick Henry would not make the playoffs.

Division 4 (Top 12 teams)

Seeds 1-4 receive first round byes.

#5 hosts #12, Winner plays #4

#6 hosts #11, Winner plays #3

#7 hosts #10, Winner plays #2

#8 hosts #9, Winner plays #1

Rank    Team                                       Rating             Strength of Schedule              Opp. Win-Loss

1.Kearny                           (4-0)    2.5                   -33.1                                        4-15

2. San Diego                     (3-1)    0.7                   -24.5                                        7-11

3.Santana                           (4-1)    -7.6                  -19.1                                        11-10

4. Mar Vista                      (3-2)    -8.4                  -18.9                                        12-7

5. Del Norte                      (3-2)    -9.9                  -7.8                                          10-13

6. Chula Vista                   (2-3)    -13.3                -6.9                                          12-12

7. La Jolla Country Day    (2-3)    -18                   -9.3                                          15-10

8. Coronado                      (3-1)    -21.8                -28.8                                        9-11

9.Classical Academy         (3-1)    -23.4                -40.4                                        4-14

10. Serra                            (1-3)    -23.5                -18.1                                        10-10

11. Fallbrook                     (1-3)    -23.7                -10.9                                        10-10

12. Sweetwater                  (1-4)    -26.1                -4.5                                          12-12

*Calexico, Montgomery, Mission Bay, Crawford and El Cajon Valley would not make the playoffs.

Division 5 (Top 12 teams)

Seeds 1-4 receive first round byes.

#5 hosts #12, Winner plays #4

#6 hosts #11, Winner plays #3

#7 hosts #10, Winner plays #2

#8 hosts #9, Winner plays #1

Rank    Team                                       Rating             Strength of Schedule              Opp. Win-Loss

1.Francis Parker                (5-0)    -10.3                -44.9                                        4-19

2. Holtville                        (4-1)    -13.7                -22.7                                        8-10

3.Vincent Memorial          (3-1)    -14.0                -23.5                                        11-7

4. Tri-City Christian          (3-1)    -21.0                -36.6                                        6-14

5. Palo Verde Valley         (3-2)    -23.4                -31.8                                        10-13

6. Maranatha Christian      (3-2)    -24.6                -31.7                                        9-12

7. Orange Glen                  (3-1)    -25.9                -34.1                                        3-11

8. Mountain Empire          (3-2)    -32.4                -39.6                                        8-16

9.Southwest SD                (2-2)    -35.7                -38.2                                        7-11

10. Castle Park                  (2-1)    -35.8                -41.8                                        3-12

11. Army-Navy                 (2-2)    -40.6                -40.4                                        6-13-1

12. Clairemont                   (0-4)    -47.4                -17.2                                        12-12

*Calipatria, San Ysidro, Escondido Charter, and Hoover would not make the playoffs.

For a look at a preview of Week 6 CLICK HERE.